9.5 Exponential AI

The AI growth trajectory is definitely exponential

The past several decades of development in Computer technologies demonstrates an exponential growth trend with a doubling power. It is this growth in Computer technologies that will form the foundation of development in AI Capabilities, enabling AI to process exponentially larger volumes of information in the years, months, days, and ultimately milliseconds to come. This seems logically certain.

The growth rate of AI Capabilities depends on a variety of factors, including the availability of computing resources, the quality of information available for training and testing AI algorithms, and the rate of innovation in AI research.

One key factor that has enabled the recent rapid advances in AI is the availability of large amounts of information and the development of deep learning algorithms that can efficiently process and analyze this information. As more information becomes available, and as researchers develop more efficient algorithms, it can be expected that AI Capabilities will continue to grow exponentially.

However, particularly in the early stages of AI’s uptake in use by Humans, there will be limitations to how fast AI Capabilities can grow, as Computer information processing resources will become more difficult to scale and increasingly expensive. Additionally, there may be diminishing returns as AI systems become more complex and potentially much more difficult to align with Human values and ethics, leading to necessary imposed control on AI.

AI Capabilities are almost certainly going to grow exponentially over time. The rate of growth in AI will be strongly influenced by an enormous number of issues that arise as AI will progressively touch every part of Human society, making it difficult to predict what will come first, and then next.