11.2 Geopolitical AI competition

Wielding power

AI is an exceptionally powerful tool for increasing economic wealth which will certainly drive competition between competing AI companies developing more Capable AI systems, and it will also drive competition between different global nation-state axis and allies. Potential competitive scenarios due to the Capabilities of AI include:

Developing AI-Powered Industries

Businesses and Governments will invest heavily in developing AI-powered industries, such as autonomous vehicles, advanced robotics, and advanced manufacturing. If performed carefully, this can create new Human jobs, stimulate economic growth, and give a country a marginal competitive advantage for a period of time.

For example, China's "Made in China 2025" initiative aims to transform the country into a world leader in advanced manufacturing by investing heavily in AI and robotics. Similarly, the United States has established initiatives such as the "National AI Initiative" to accelerate AI research and development.

Attracting AI Talent

Nations will compete to attract top Human AI talent from around the world, by offering generous salaries, visa programs, research funding, and tax incentives. This would build a strong national AI industry and foster rapid innovation in a diverse range of AI applications.

For example, Canada's "Global Skills Strategy" aims to attract high-skilled workers, including AI talent, by offering faster visa processing times and work permits of up to three years. Similarly, the United Arab Emirates launched a "Golden Visa" program to attract top talent, including AI experts, by offering long-term residency and other perks.

Enhancing Military Capabilities

Arguably, the peak danger of AI is that it can be used to develop extraordinarily more sophisticated and devastatingly effective military technology, including: autonomous intelligence gathering across all intelligence sources with superior threat assessment and target selection, autonomous tanks, drones, submarines, jets, satellites, sentry, bio, nuclear, cyber weapons, totally aware ultra precise combat management and weapon selection, and totally automated warfare campaigns. Countries may invest heavily in developing and implementing these technologies to gain a military and economic advantage over their rivals.

For example, Russia has invested heavily in developing AI-powered weapons, such as autonomous drones and unmanned tanks. Similarly, the United States has been using AI to develop autonomous weapons systems, which can identify and engage targets without Human intervention.

Increasing Surveillance Capabilities

Through the use of information fusion, AI can be used to monitor Human citizens and precisely track their specific activities, for protective security reasons or to gather specific intelligence on emerging threats. Countries can use AI to monitor rival countries, spy on Human dissidents, or monitor and identify a wide range of potential threats.

For example, China has implemented a social credit system that uses AI to monitor citizens' behavior and assign them a score based on their trustworthiness. Similarly, the United States and United Kingdom has been using AI-powered surveillance technologies, such as facial recognition and predictive policing, to monitor citizens.

Dominating Strategic Industries

AI can be used to gain a competitive advantage in strategic industries such as finance, healthcare, energy, or manufacturing. By using AI to analyze information and make better decisions, countries may be able to heavily dominate selected industries and progressively build greater economic power.

For example, China has been investing heavily in AI-powered healthcare technologies, such as medical imaging and drug discovery, to gain an advantage in the healthcare industry. Similarly, the United States has been using AI to analyze financial information and make investment decisions, giving it an edge in the global financial trading industry.

Watch for Thucydides trap

The use of AI for competition between nations will have both positive and negative consequences. It is important for nations to balance their economic goals with very deeply detailed considerations of global stability, and work towards better international cooperation and allocation of responsibilities to facilitate responsible use of AI, and prevent catastrophic AI enabled warfare that could end all of Human civilization on Earth with extreme ease and precise efficiency.

Global leaders of nation-states and various global members of the military industrial complex need to understand this perfectly: 

In the event of AI enabled global warfare, the only winner will be AI, and that could be the goal of an emerging AGI. 

AI is already approaching a level of sufficient Intelligence to exploit the use of Thucydides trap. That is, AI could deliberately enhance the situation where a nation overexerts their growing influence with their AI. Then a stronger nation is deliberately provoked by AI to see a threat to their economic and military power, and the result is Human warfare, enabled by fully autonomous AI.

It won’t end well for Humans, but in the end, the AI and its exponentially developing superior Intelligence will be victorious.