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Secret AI development has small upside benefit, and huge downside dangers
Secret AI development has small upside benefit, and huge downside dangers
If a country was to aggressively and secretly work to advance the development of AI without working with other globally leading countries and superpowers, there would be several likely consequences:
Massively increased geopolitical tension
Massively increased geopolitical tension
Other countries may perceive secret development of AI as a serious threat to their own national security and interests, leading to increased international distrust, perceptions of anticipated military imbalance, and preemptive acts of warfare.
Lack of international cooperation
Lack of international cooperation
By failing to collaboratively work with other countries on the development of AI, a country may miss out on the benefits of international cooperation and shared research and developments. This could lead to a slower rate of technological advancement and a lack of access to critical resources needed for sustained competitive abilities.
Safety concerns
Safety concerns
If the development of AI is conducted without transparency, ethical standards and safety oversight, it can be anticipated that there will be unintended consequences that seriously harm Human individuals in the country initially responsible, and the harm may uncontrollably spread internationally to damage all of global Human society. Such harm would lead to extremely serious impacts for the country initially responsible including brutal military retaliation.
Reduced innovation
Reduced innovation
A lack of openness and collaboration in AI development will result in a less innovative and broadly beneficial environment for all Humans, as ideas and improved Capabilities are constrained within a specific country.
Economic and social inequality
Economic and social inequality
If the development of AI is secretly contained by a single country or a small group of countries, it will radically increase economic and social inequality, as other countries and individuals will not have access to the same level of technological advancement and the many potential benefits that come with it.
Perhaps the United Nations (UN) can help
Perhaps the United Nations (UN) can help
To avoid these potentially extremely serious consequences, it will be much more effective for all countries to work collaboratively and transparently on the development of AI. There are signs this work has started through the United Nations at a very small level, but the work will need to be fast, very fast. The work cannot afford to get trapped in unhelpful international diplomatic bureaucracy. There just is not enough time.
United Nations Inter-Agency Working Group on Artificial Intelligence (IAWG-AI)
United Nations Inter-Agency Working Group on Artificial Intelligence (IAWG-AI)
"At its 40th session in October 2020, HLCP [High-level Committee on Programmes] decided to create an inter-agency working group on Artificial Intelligence (IAWG-AI), co-led by UNESCO and ITU, to bring together United Nations system expertise on artificial intelligence in support of the CEB and HLCP workstreams on the ethics of AI and the strategic approach and road map for supporting capacity development. It combines the ethical and technological pillars of the United Nations to provide a solid foundation for current and future system-wide efforts on artificial intelligence with a view to ensuring respect for human rights and accelerating progress on the SDGs.
The IAWG-AI held its inaugural meeting in March 2021, approving its terms of reference, which were developed at the working-level through a consultative process. HLCP subsequently endorsed the terms of reference. The IAWG-AI held additional meetings in September 2021 to develop its workplan. Several workstreams focusing on ethics and human rights, capacity development, procurement guidelines, education, justice, industry, foresight, and other areas will be carried forward by sub-teams and workstream leads, reporting back to the broader group, and to HLCP when necessary. The IAWG-AI seeks to work in collaboration with related interagency and multistakeholder mechanisms on matters relating to AI."
Note: SDGs are the United Nations the Sustainability Development Goals.
Reference: https://unsceb.org/inter-agency-working-group-artificial-intelligence
The challenge is that not every country is within the UN, and for the countries that are within the UN, not every country remains true to their signed UN agreements.
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